MARKET-CAP METHODOLOGY
INDEPENDENT RESEARCH / INDEX & MARKET SIZE
How the market figures
are worked out.
This page explains two different figures: the Pokémon Card Index and our estimate of the graded-card market. We show the evidence, the simple maths and the limits of each figure.
01A simple way to track
POKÉMON CARD INDEX / DAILY RANDOM SAMPLE
A simple way to track
the market over time.
The index shows how raw-card prices have moved compared with a starting score of 100. It is not a price in pounds and it is not the total price of the cards.
2,317 historical card versions
The series starts at 100 on 8 February 2024. Every card has the same weight, so one very expensive card cannot control the result.
10,000 catalogue cards
The date creates a repeatable random order. This spreads the checks across different sets, ages, characters and rarities.
At least 200 valid prices
We compare 200 current public prices with their 30-day averages. Missing or failed prices are left out. If we cannot get 200, we keep the last complete reading.
Average movement × latest index
We average the price changes after limiting unusual one-off jumps. An index of 250 means prices are 2.5 times the starting level: 250 ÷ 100 = 2.5.
WHY 10,000?
A wide sample gives more cards a fair chance to be checked.
A short fixed list can be biased towards famous or costly cards. A random sample of 10,000 covers a much wider mix while keeping the daily job quick enough to run reliably.
The order changes each day but can be recreated from the date. From this wide screen, the index collects 200 valid live comparisons. The 10,000 figure is the screen size, not the number of successful price checks.
What does 250 mean?
The starting index is 100. A reading of 250 means the tracked market level is 150% above the start, or 2.5 times as high. It does not mean £250 and it is not the total value of 200 cards.
02A sensible range,
MARKET-CAP METHODOLOGY / INDEPENDENT MODEL
A sensible range,
not one exact answer.
No official source records the value of every graded Pokémon card. We therefore show a low, middle and high estimate.
45m graded cards
Our middle estimate is 45m, with a range of 38m–52m. We compare population reports from the main grading companies.
$133 per graded card
We group public sold prices by age, language and grade. We use a range of $105–$152, so rare trophy cards do not distort the whole market.
5% deducted
Some cards are graded more than once after a crossover, reholder or label change. We remove 5% to reduce likely double counting.
$3.8bn–$7.5bn
The middle estimate is $5.7bn. This is the modelled value of graded cards, not yearly sales or the amount owners could sell all at once.
Important: this is an independent estimate of graded cards only. Raw cards and sealed products are excluded because their surviving supply and condition cannot be measured reliably.
PUBLIC EVIDENCE
Sources used for the estimate
Open the population and pricing sources behind the range.
PSA Population ReportExact grade populations and daily population updates.Open source ↗GemRateCross-grader population and grading-volume checks for PSA, CGC, Beckett and SGC.Open source ↗PriceChartingPublic sold-price guides used to build grade and era value bands.Open source ↗The Pokémon Company production figuresPrinted-card totals used only as a reasonableness check, never as market value.Open source ↗